Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Warriors (98%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Lakers (-7.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (25%) · Lakers at 2.5¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
4
Lakers 25%
3 arb excluded
$7.6K
$304.66
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 98%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR | Lakersavg 57.1¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$166.67 | 54% 1218-1024 (2242) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 54.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$117.99 | 53% 4003-3486 (7489) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 54.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$272.6 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 40.9¢ | $711.64 | $557.03 | -$154.61 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Lakersavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$29.39 | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 51¢ | $908.26 | $944.32 | +$36.07 | |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 47.8¢ | $418.87 | $412.19 | -$6.68 | |
GA gagarin59 | Warriorsavg 35¢ | $912.47 | $1.2K | +$312.85 | 52% 687-645 (1332) |
UP UpTheBlues | Warriorsavg 49.9¢ | $492.84 | $600.43 | +$107.59 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 48.5¢ | $131.89 | $138.83 | +$6.94 | 54% 10684-9283 (19967) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 48.5¢ | $90.18 | $87.42 | -$2.76 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 43¢ | $41.71 | $51.41 | +$9.7 | |
 HRTrading | Warriorsavg 52.9¢ | $87.05 | $137.95 | +$50.9 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
Invested
$2,335.25
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$166.67
Record
54%
1218-1024 (2242)
Invested
$1,805.57
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$117.99
Record
53%
4003-3486 (7489)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,327.13
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$29.39
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
Both legs:
Invested
$912.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$312.85
Record
52%
687-645 (1332)
Invested
$492.84
Value
$600.43
PnL
+$107.59
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$131.89
Value
$138.83
PnL
+$6.94
Record
54%
10684-9283 (19967)
Both legs:
HRTradingInvested
$87.05
Value
$137.95
PnL
+$50.9
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.