Spread: Lakers (-6.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (71%) · Warriors at 97¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Lakers3¢Warriors97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$663.46

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 97¢

+80% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers3%

Warriors97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,467

Combined PnL+$745.38

Lakers2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,843

Combined PnL-$81.92

Warriors — 71%Lakers — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 55.9¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$503.43	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Lakersavg 58.4¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$89.76	54% 1218-1024 (2242)
UP UpTheBlues	Warriorsavg 45.8¢	$520.61	$752.64	+$232.03	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Lakersavg 50.6¢	$334.26	$353.14	+$18.88	48% 805-879 (1684)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 50.6¢	$176.16	$195.13	+$18.98
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 44¢	$158.1	$158.01	-$0.1
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Lakersavg 48¢	$47.04	$54.88	+$7.84	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
HRTrading<$100	Warriorsavg 48.2¢	$17.34	$29.72	+$12.38	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
US User7429<$100	Warriorsavg 70¢	$29.52	$28.68	-$0.84	55% 8268-6673 (14941)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Warriorsavg 61¢	$3.94	$2.84	-$1.62	62% 4127-2523 (6650)

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$2,021.57

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$503.43

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Lakers

Invested

$2,186.78

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$89.76

Record

54%

1218-1024 (2242)

UpTheBlues

Warriors

Invested

$520.61

Value

$752.64

PnL

+$232.03

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$334.26

Value

$353.14

PnL

+$18.88

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

Both legs:

Lakers$176.1650.6¢+$18.98

Warriors$158.144¢-$0.1

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$47.04

Value

$54.88

PnL

+$7.84

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

HRTrading<$100

Warriors

Invested

$17.34

Value

$29.72

PnL

+$12.38

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

User7429<$100

Warriors

Invested

$29.52

Value

$28.68

PnL

-$0.84

Record

55%

8268-6673 (14941)

SunlineTicker<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3.94

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$1.62

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.