Spread: Lakers (-5.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (64%) · Warriors at 96¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Lakers4¢Warriors96¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 64%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 96¢

+63% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers4%

Warriors96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors7 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares18,832

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,747

Combined PnL-$19.63

Warriors — 64%Lakers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 59¢	$12.3K	$4.3K	$-2.9K	54% 17133-14341 (31474)
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 58.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$20.65	53% 4003-3486 (7489)
VeryLucky888	Warriorsavg 59¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$440	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Lakersavg 59.3¢	$698	$688	-$10	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Lakersavg 59¢	$651.95	$651.95	+$0	54% 1218-1024 (2242)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Lakersavg 34.5¢	$162.78	$141.6	-$21.18	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
0X 0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100	Warriorsavg 49.3¢	$91.33	$75.92	-$15.41	48% 98-108 (206)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Warriorsavg 59¢	$65.51	$43.3	-$16.65	50% 6989-6984 (13973)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Lakersavg 49¢	$31.04	$42.59	+$11.55	48% 805-879 (1684)
HRTrading<$100	Warriorsavg 80.4¢	$41.14	$35.37	-$5.77	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Warriorsavg 58¢	$8.7	$5.85	-$2.85	58% 28550-21073 (49623)

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$12,282.41

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

54%

17133-14341 (31474)

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$1,590.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$20.65

Record

53%

4003-3486 (7489)

VeryLucky888

Warriors

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$440

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

justaluckydudeCTR

Lakers

Invested

$698

Value

$688

PnL

-$10

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Lakers

Invested

$651.95

Value

$651.95

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1218-1024 (2242)

UpTheBluesCTR

Lakers

Invested

$162.78

Value

$141.6

PnL

-$21.18

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

0x3968b9ccb92062667295229330f8051afd7d6346<$100

Warriors

Invested

$91.33

Value

$75.92

PnL

-$15.41

Record

48%

98-108 (206)

Forecastication2<$100

Warriors

Invested

$65.51

Value

$43.3

PnL

-$16.65

Record

50%

6989-6984 (13973)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$31.04

Value

$42.59

PnL

+$11.55

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

HRTrading<$100

Warriors

Invested

$41.14

Value

$35.37

PnL

-$5.77

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Warriors

Invested

$8.7

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$2.85

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWarriors 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Warriors 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.