Spread: Lakers (-3.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (67%) · Warriors at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Lakers46¢Warriors54¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$21.12

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers46%

Warriors55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,959

Combined PnL-$137.76

Lakers2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,554

Combined PnL+$116.64

Warriors — 67%Lakers — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Warriorsavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$136.97	54% 1262-1070 (2332)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Lakersavg 46.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$110.42	54% 17065-14298 (31363)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Lakersavg 46¢	$252.58	$263.42	+$10.84	54% 3281-2830 (6111)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 46¢	$184.59	$198.63	+$14.04
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 53¢	$67.99	$64.79	-$3.21
FO Forecastication2CTR	Lakersavg 47¢	$117.03	$123.26	+$6.22	50% 6944-6931 (13875)
GH ghorrock<$100	Warriorsavg 53¢	$12.69	$12.55	-$0.14	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Warriorsavg 53¢	$12.19	$11.62	-$0.57	58% 28351-20930 (49281)
0xheavy888<$100	Warriorsavg 52¢	$2.65	$2.58	-$0.08	55% 7025-5636 (12661)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Warriors

Invested

$2,113.3

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$136.97

Record

54%

1262-1070 (2332)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Lakers

Invested

$1,525.36

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$110.42

Record

54%

17065-14298 (31363)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$252.58

Value

$263.42

PnL

+$10.84

Record

54%

3281-2830 (6111)

Both legs:

Lakers$184.5946¢+$14.04

Warriors$67.9953¢-$3.21

Forecastication2CTR

Lakers

Invested

$117.03

Value

$123.26

PnL

+$6.22

Record

50%

6944-6931 (13875)

ghorrock<$100

Warriors

Invested

$12.69

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$0.14

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Warriors

Invested

$12.19

Value

$11.62

PnL

-$0.57

Record

58%

28351-20930 (49281)

0xheavy888<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

7025-5636 (12661)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.