Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (63%) · Lakers at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Lakers51¢Warriors49¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 63%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$2.37

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers51%

Warriors50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,049

Combined PnL-$9.75

Lakers5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,252

Combined PnL+$7.38

Warriors — 38%Lakers — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR	Warriorsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$990	-$10	54% 1262-1070 (2332)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 50¢	$722.31	$729.53	+$7.22	54% 17065-14298 (31363)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Lakersavg 51¢	$153	$153	+$0	53% 383-337 (720)
HE Herdonia	Lakersavg 51¢	$137.8	$137.8	-$0	54% 3281-2830 (6111)
RollAwayTheDew	Lakersavg 51¢	$104.55	$104.55	+$0	53% 367-326 (693)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 49¢	$23.51	$23.75	+$0.24	58% 28351-20930 (49281)
GH ghorrock<$100	Lakersavg 50¢	$16.19	$16.35	+$0.16	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Warriorsavg 49¢	$0.66	$0.67	+$0.01	46% 7787-9202 (16989)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494CTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990

PnL

-$10

Record

54%

1262-1070 (2332)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$722.31

Value

$729.53

PnL

+$7.22

Record

54%

17065-14298 (31363)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Lakers

Invested

$153

Value

$153

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

383-337 (720)

Herdonia

Lakers

Invested

$137.8

Value

$137.8

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

3281-2830 (6111)

RollAwayTheDew

Lakers

Invested

$104.55

Value

$104.55

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

367-326 (693)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$23.51

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

28351-20930 (49281)

ghorrock<$100

Lakers

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.35

PnL

+$0.16

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.