Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Lakers (56%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (33%) · Warriors at 45¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 31

Lakers56¢Warriors44¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.9K

Combined PnL

-$21.65

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 44.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers56%

Warriors45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors3 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares27,403

Combined PnL-$50.29

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares17,058

Combined PnL+$28.64

Warriors — 33%Lakers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLakers 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Warriorsavg 45¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	-$0	54% 589-507 (1096)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 54.7¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$28.27	54% 17115-14330 (31445)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Warriorsavg 45.7¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$49.64	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
AY ay118	Lakersavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	50% 19-19 (38)
OD Oddstorm	Lakersavg 55¢	$739.83	$739.83	+$0	38% 377-619 (996)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Lakersavg 55¢	$550	$550	+$0	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
VeryLucky888	Lakersavg 55¢	$283.98	$284.21	+$0.23	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 55¢	$162.51	$162.6	+$0.09	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 55¢	$84.7	$84.7	+$0
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 44.9¢	$77.81	$77.9	+$0.09
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 45.5¢	$29.47	$28.82	-$0.65	57% 13599-10421 (24020)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lakersavg 54.5¢	$14.71	$14.85	+$0.14	58% 28411-20972 (49383)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Warriors

Invested

$8,999.95

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

589-507 (1096)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$5,764.5

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$28.27

Record

54%

17115-14330 (31445)

SunlineTickerCTR

Warriors

Invested

$3,351.88

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$49.64

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

ay118

Lakers

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

19-19 (38)

Oddstorm

Lakers

Invested

$739.83

Value

$739.83

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Lakers

Invested

$550

Value

$550

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

VeryLucky888

Lakers

Invested

$283.98

Value

$284.21

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$162.51

Value

$162.6

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

Both legs:

Lakers$84.755¢+$0

Warriors$77.8144.9¢+$0.09

ghorrockCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$29.47

Value

$28.82

PnL

-$0.65

Record

57%

13599-10421 (24020)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lakers

Invested

$14.71

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLakers 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.