Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Warriors (54%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-17.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 46¢ · $336 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
2
Lakers 50%
1 arb excluded
$335.71
-$11.45
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HRTradingCTR | Lakersavg 46.1¢ | $177.16 | $164.16 | -$13 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Lakersavg 49¢ | $221.36 | $87.85 | -$21.83 | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 50.8¢ | $34.33 | $51.71 | +$17.37 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 49¢ | $75.34 | $36.13 | -$39.21 | |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Warriorsavg 53¢ | $82.15 | $83.7 | +$1.55 | 50% 3813-3770 (7583) |
HRTradingCTRInvested
$177.16
Value
$164.16
PnL
-$13
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$221.36
Value
$87.85
PnL
-$21.83
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
Both legs:
Invested
$82.15
Value
$83.7
PnL
+$1.55
Record
50%
3813-3770 (7583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.