Spread: Lakers (-15.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (25%) · Warriors at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
4
Warriors 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$70.15
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Lakersavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $1.4K | -$727.75 | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 53¢ | $1.9K | $1.1K | -$849.36 | |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 46.7¢ | $233.52 | $345.14 | +$121.62 | |
NA NatoAlfista | Warriorsavg 46¢ | $168.82 | $253.23 | +$84.41 | 50% 3813-3770 (7583) |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 45¢ | $22.05 | $13.72 | -$8.33 | 63% 8113-4855 (12968) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 8.4¢ | $11.31 | $6.28 | -$5.03 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100 | Lakersavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $1.4 | -$0.9 | 53% 6124-5371 (11495) |
Invested
$2,109.42
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$727.75
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.82
Value
$253.23
PnL
+$84.41
Record
50%
3813-3770 (7583)
Invested
$22.05
Value
$13.72
PnL
-$8.33
Record
63%
8113-4855 (12968)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$11.31
Value
$6.28
PnL
-$5.03
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.9
Record
53%
6124-5371 (11495)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.