Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Warriors (98%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Lakers (-11.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 2.0¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
4
Lakers 50%
1 arb excluded
$8.8K
-$385.15
46.7¢ → 2¢
-96% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Warriors 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 73.3¢ | $6.0K | $5.3K | -$643.11 | 53% 4003-3486 (7489) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 73.3¢ | $5.1K | $4.2K | -$920.18 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 30.6¢ | $903.16 | $1.2K | +$277.07 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Lakersavg 47.3¢ | $3.6K | $3.1K | -$280.69 | 48% 805-879 (1684) |
JU justaluckydude | Warriorsavg 67.6¢ | $350.67 | $311.4 | -$39.27 | 54% 10684-9283 (19967) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Warriorsavg 75¢ | $88.23 | $70.58 | -$50 | 52% 377-342 (719) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 16.4¢ | $29.15 | $13.96 | -$15.19 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
Invested
$5,978.11
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$643.11
Record
53%
4003-3486 (7489)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,620.4
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$280.69
Record
48%
805-879 (1684)
Invested
$350.67
Value
$311.4
PnL
-$39.27
Record
54%
10684-9283 (19967)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$88.23
Value
$70.58
PnL
-$50
Record
52%
377-342 (719)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$29.15
Value
$13.96
PnL
-$15.19
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.