Lakers vs. Warriors
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
4
Lakers 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$6.32
53.9¢ → 56.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU BullishBarbARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 49.1¢ | $890.69 | $877.36 | -$13.33 | 43% 3531-4771 (8302) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 49.1¢ | $479.9 | $449.82 | -$30.08 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 51.9¢ | $410.79 | $427.55 | +$16.75 | |
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Lakersavg 54¢ | $320.94 | $320.99 | +$6 | 89% 242-30 (272) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 46.3¢ | $72.34 | $36.37 | -$0.74 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Lakersavg 52¢ | $20.11 | $20.88 | +$0.77 | 53% 361-318 (679) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 45¢ | $12.97 | $13.26 | +$0.29 | 49% 18804-19198 (38002) |
Invested
$890.69
Value
$877.36
PnL
-$13.33
Record
43%
3531-4771 (8302)
Both legs:
Invested
$320.94
Value
$320.99
PnL
+$6
Record
89%
242-30 (272)
Invested
$72.34
Value
$36.37
PnL
-$0.74
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$20.11
Value
$20.88
PnL
+$0.77
Record
53%
361-318 (679)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$13.26
PnL
+$0.29
Record
49%
18804-19198 (38002)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.