Spread: Pistons (-9.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (60%) · Lakers at 57¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Pistons43¢Lakers57¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$37.03

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons43%

Lakers57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,086

Combined PnL+$30.24

Pistons4 traders

Total Value$417.82

Total Shares1,008

Combined PnL+$6.78

Lakers — 60%Pistons — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 57¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$25.62	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Lakersavg 57¢	$388.88	$395.12	+$6.24	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 57¢	$286.38	$288.87	+$2.49
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 41¢	$102.5	$106.25	+$3.75
GC GC-P	Lakersavg 57¢	$309.6	$313	+$3.4	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
RN1ARB<$100	Lakersavg 58¢	$247.5	$250	+$2.5	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 58¢	$145	$143.75	-$1.25
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 41¢	$102.5	$106.25	+$3.75
MA MadridTimeCTR	Pistonsavg 40.7¢	$183.24	$186.85	+$3.61	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
38 38791873984189	Lakersavg 63.8¢	$142.36	$144.64	+$2.28	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pistonsavg 39¢	$129.72	$134.59	+$4.86	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 43¢	$82.42	$77.74	-$4.68	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
65 6512395314597884	Lakersavg 60¢	$100	$58.5	-$1.5	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 62.6¢	$43.11	$42.84	-$0.27	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
VeryLucky888<$100	Lakersavg 58¢	$48	$28.56	+$0.72	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 34¢	$15.66	$18.65	+$2.99	49% 2208-2325 (4533)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$2,920.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$25.62

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

NM-PARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$388.88

Value

$395.12

PnL

+$6.24

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

Both legs:

Lakers$286.3857¢+$2.49

Pistons$102.541¢+$3.75

GC-P

Lakers

Invested

$309.6

Value

$313

PnL

+$3.4

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

RN1ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$247.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Both legs:

Lakers$14558¢-$1.25

Pistons$102.541¢+$3.75

MadridTimeCTR

Pistons

Invested

$183.24

Value

$186.85

PnL

+$3.61

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

38791873984189

Lakers

Invested

$142.36

Value

$144.64

PnL

+$2.28

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

LightParadoxCTR

Pistons

Invested

$129.72

Value

$134.59

PnL

+$4.86

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$82.42

Value

$77.74

PnL

-$4.68

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

6512395314597884

Lakers

Invested

$100

Value

$58.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$43.11

Value

$42.84

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

VeryLucky888<$100

Lakers

Invested

$48

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$0.72

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$15.66

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$2.99

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.