Spread: Pistons (-7.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (69%) · Lakers at 53¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8

Pistons48¢Lakers52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.2K

Combined PnL

$156.84

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 52.5¢

-6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons48%

Lakers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons4 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares18,632

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Lakers9 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares19,385

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Pistons — 31%Lakers — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrLakers 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO ropetardCTR	Pistonsavg 42.9¢	$7.8K	$9.0K	+$1.2K	65% 114-62 (176)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 57.2¢	$11.5K	$5.8K	-$765.08	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
HI hi774c	Lakersavg 57¢	$4.2K	$2.1K	-$264.8	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 47.5¢	$2.2K	$1.1K	+$0.3	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 47.5¢	$782.08	$815.01	+$32.8
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 57¢	$285	$252.5	-$32.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 55¢	$1.8K	$900.15	-$45.63	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 55¢	$503.25	$462.08	-$41.2
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 50¢	$442.5	$438.08	-$4.43
FE ferrariChampions2026	Lakersavg 50¢	$1.4K	$709.86	+$7.03	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
SE sentrio	Lakersavg 52¢	$585.39	$591.02	+$5.63	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
GA Gaditima	Lakersavg 52¢	$520	$505	-$15	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Pistonsavg 50¢	$400	$198	-$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Pistonsavg 39.5¢	$177.75	$144.3	-$1.83	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 39.5¢	$86.24	$108.02	+$2.12
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 56¢	$40.24	$36.28	-$3.95
65 6512395314597884	Lakersavg 53¢	$100	$50.5	-$2.5	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
BO BoomLaLa	Lakersavg 54¢	$100	$50.5	-$3.5	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
PA Pan9X	Lakersavg 54.8¢	$181	$36.52	-$2.46	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 47¢	$29.61	$31.19	+$1.58	47% 150-168 (318)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 50¢	$55	$27.23	-$0.28	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
0xheavy888<$100	Lakersavg 56¢	$11.2	$10.1	-$1.1	56% 8753-6943 (15696)

ropetardCTR

Pistons

Invested

$7,767.13

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

65%

114-62 (176)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$11,539.63

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$765.08

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

hi774c

Lakers

Invested

$4,154.76

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$264.8

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2,227.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.3

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Both legs:

Pistons$782.0847.5¢+$32.8

Lakers$28557¢-$32.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,800

Value

$900.15

PnL

-$45.63

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Lakers$503.2555¢-$41.2

Pistons$442.550¢-$4.43

ferrariChampions2026

Lakers

Invested

$1,405.66

Value

$709.86

PnL

+$7.03

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

sentrio

Lakers

Invested

$585.39

Value

$591.02

PnL

+$5.63

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Gaditima

Lakers

Invested

$520

Value

$505

PnL

-$15

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Pistons

Invested

$400

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$177.75

Value

$144.3

PnL

-$1.83

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Both legs:

Pistons$86.2439.5¢+$2.12

Lakers$40.2456¢-$3.95

6512395314597884

Lakers

Invested

$100

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

BoomLaLa

Lakers

Invested

$100

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

Pan9X

Lakers

Invested

$181

Value

$36.52

PnL

-$2.46

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

biying99999CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$29.61

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$1.58

Record

47%

150-168 (318)

RLWGCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$55

Value

$27.23

PnL

-$0.28

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

0xheavy888<$100

Lakers

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$1.1

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrLakers 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.