Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Pistons (63%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lakers vs. Pistons

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (62%) · Lakers at 38¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8

Lakers38¢Pistons62¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

-$96.3

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 37.5¢

-19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers38%

Pistons63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$765

Total Shares1,240

Combined PnL+$8.48

Lakers8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,073

Combined PnL-$104.77

Pistons — 38%Lakers — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 62.1¢	$8.4K	$7.8K	-$584.83	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 62.1¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$32.34
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 46¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$617.18
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 60.5¢	$1.4K	$918.31	-$52.7	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 60.5¢	$551.02	$568.84	+$26.59
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 43.9¢	$409.52	$349.47	-$79.29
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 61¢	$597	$601.89	+$4.89	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Lakersavg 42.4¢	$571.01	$548.89	-$22.11	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 42.4¢	$327.59	$289.5	-$38.09
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 58.7¢	$243.42	$259.39	+$15.97
GA GaditimaCTR	Lakersavg 57.7¢	$29.36	$404.6	-$61.04	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Lakersavg 44¢	$254.91	$223.05	-$31.86	54% 542-460 (1002)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Lakersavg 38¢	$220.05	$217.16	-$2.9	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Lakersavg 39¢	$202.3	$199.71	-$2.59	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
SE sentrio	Pistonsavg 61¢	$128.4	$129.45	+$1.05	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Lakersavg 47¢	$73.26	$102.35	-$0.52	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 47¢	$74.04	$74.04	-$0.79
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52¢	$27.77	$28.31	+$0.27
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Pistonsavg 52¢	$97	$100	+$3	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52¢	$52	$61.5	+$9.5
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 45¢	$45	$38.5	-$6.5
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Lakersavg 39¢	$85.45	$84.35	-$1.1	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Lakersavg 45.5¢	$76.24	$74.38	-$6.9	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 54.2¢	$35.26	$40.63	+$0.33
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 45.5¢	$40.98	$33.75	-$7.23
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Lakersavg 43.4¢	$43.34	$38.4	-$4.94	49% 269-278 (547)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 59.3¢	$89.55	$20.12	+$2.42	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0xheavy888<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$12.2	$12.3	+$0.1	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Lakersavg 40¢	$8.59	$8.27	-$0.32	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Lakersavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.92	-$0.02	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$1.22	$1.23	+$0.01	45% 3029-3730 (6759)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$8,374.57

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$584.83

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Both legs:

Pistons$5,034.4962.1¢+$32.34

Lakers$3,340.0846¢-$617.18

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1,359.71

Value

$918.31

PnL

-$52.7

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Pistons$551.0260.5¢+$26.59

Lakers$409.5243.9¢-$79.29

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$597

Value

$601.89

PnL

+$4.89

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$571.01

Value

$548.89

PnL

-$22.11

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Both legs:

Lakers$327.5942.4¢-$38.09

Pistons$243.4258.7¢+$15.97

GaditimaCTR

Lakers

Invested

$29.36

Value

$404.6

PnL

-$61.04

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Lakers

Invested

$254.91

Value

$223.05

PnL

-$31.86

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

darkumbreon88CTR

Lakers

Invested

$220.05

Value

$217.16

PnL

-$2.9

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

MadridTimeCTR

Lakers

Invested

$202.3

Value

$199.71

PnL

-$2.59

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

sentrio

Pistons

Invested

$128.4

Value

$129.45

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

OddstormARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$73.26

Value

$102.35

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Both legs:

Lakers$74.0447¢-$0.79

Pistons$27.7752¢+$0.27

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$97

Value

$100

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

Both legs:

Invested

$85.45

Value

$84.35

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$76.24

Value

$74.38

PnL

-$6.9

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Both legs:

Pistons$35.2654.2¢+$0.33

Lakers$40.9845.5¢-$7.23

BayupatiCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$43.34

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$4.94

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$89.55

Value

$20.12

PnL

+$2.42

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0xheavy888<$100

Pistons

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$8.59

Value

$8.27

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

RLWGCTR<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.92

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

3029-3730 (6759)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.