Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 10

Over41¢Under59¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$71.2

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 59¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$897.69

Total Shares1,512

Combined PnL+$66.84

Over3 traders

Total Value$212.23

Total Shares457

Combined PnL+$4.36

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 46.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$98.66	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.8¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$129.55
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.4¢	$550.02	$580.91	+$30.89
nigiri99	Underavg 55.4¢	$506.13	$538.67	+$32.54	43% 28-37 (65)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 52¢	$225.19	$255.5	+$30.31	2% 4-203 (207)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$204.52	$208.82	+$4.3	54% 233-201 (434)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	100% 28-0 (28)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$107	+$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$93	-$7
VI vibing123<$100	Underavg 53¢	$39.24	$39.61	+$0.37	2% 5-300 (305)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Underavg 54.9¢	$34.8	$37.07	+$2.27	4% 5-123 (128)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52.5¢	$37.44	$24.54	+$1.24	53% 86-75 (161)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.32	+$0.02	18% 42-190 (232)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.19	$2.3	+$0.11	5% 11-190 (201)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$1.05	$1.09	+$0.04	—

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,700.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$98.66

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Over$1,150.446.8¢-$129.55

Under$550.0255.4¢+$30.89

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$506.13

Value

$538.67

PnL

+$32.54

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$225.19

Value

$255.5

PnL

+$30.31

Record

4-203 (207)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$204.52

Value

$208.82

PnL

+$4.3

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

28-0 (28)

Both legs:

Invested

$39.24

Value

$39.61

PnL

+$0.37

Record

5-300 (305)

SunlineTicker<$100

Under

Invested

$34.8

Value

$37.07

PnL

+$2.27

Record

5-123 (128)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$37.44

Value

$24.54

PnL

+$1.24

Record

53%

86-75 (161)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0.02

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$2.19

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.11

Record

11-190 (201)

auros2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.