Lakers vs. Hawks

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10

Lakers56¢Hawks44¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$145.07

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 56.5¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers56%

Hawks44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,145

Combined PnL+$172.22

Hawks4 traders

Total Value$598.31

Total Shares1,234

Combined PnL-$27.15

Lakers — 50%Hawks — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Medo3D	Lakersavg 49¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$108.48	40% 182-276 (458)
nigiri99	Lakersavg 49.3¢	$694.75	$725.64	+$30.88	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
IC ic4creamCTR	Hawksavg 51¢	$591.48	$562.49	-$28.99	56% 2876-2262 (5138)
38 38791873984189	Lakersavg 48.9¢	$208.78	$216.6	+$29.81	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Lakersavg 51¢	$100.11	$99.38	-$0.73	48% 8326-8887 (17213)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51¢	$57.09	$57.66	+$0.56
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 50¢	$43.01	$41.71	-$1.29
65 6512395314597884<$100	Lakersavg 53.3¢	$38.97	$42.02	+$3.05	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hawksavg 48.2¢	$24.94	$26.77	+$1.83	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$6.7	$6.63	-$0.07	49% 8559-8732 (17291)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Hawksavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.43	+$0.08	47% 8642-9780 (18422)

Medo3D

Lakers

Invested

$2,126.16

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$108.48

Record

40%

182-276 (458)

nigiri99

Lakers

Invested

$694.75

Value

$725.64

PnL

+$30.88

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

ic4creamCTR

Hawks

Invested

$591.48

Value

$562.49

PnL

-$28.99

Record

56%

2876-2262 (5138)

38791873984189

Lakers

Invested

$208.78

Value

$216.6

PnL

+$29.81

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

OddstormARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$100.11

Value

$99.38

PnL

-$0.73

Record

48%

8326-8887 (17213)

Both legs:

Lakers$57.0951¢+$0.56

Hawks$43.0150¢-$1.29

6512395314597884<$100

Lakers

Invested

$38.97

Value

$42.02

PnL

+$3.05

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$24.94

Value

$26.77

PnL

+$1.83

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

RLWGCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.63

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

8559-8732 (17291)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

8642-9780 (18422)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLakers 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.