Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Suns (70%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Clippers (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (50%) · Clippers at 30¢ · $100 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
6
Clippers 50%
$100.04
$0.49
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 37¢ | $42.86 | $43.44 | +$0.58 | 42% 574-809 (1383) |
 RN1<$100 | Sunsavg 59¢ | $29.98 | $29.72 | -$0.25 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sunsavg 62¢ | $16.66 | $16.79 | +$0.13 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $3.75 | +$0.15 | 28% 279-704 (983) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 36¢ | $3.6 | $3.75 | +$0.15 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Sunsavg 69¢ | $2.85 | $2.58 | -$0.27 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
Invested
$42.86
Value
$43.44
PnL
+$0.58
Record
42%
574-809 (1383)
RN1<$100Invested
$29.98
Value
$29.72
PnL
-$0.25
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$16.66
Value
$16.79
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.15
Record
28%
279-704 (983)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.27
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.