Rui Hachimura: Rebounds O/U 5.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 59¢ · $325 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$325.47
$105.55
Research grade
AvoidYes at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283 | Yesavg 39¢ | $195 | $300 | +$105 | 10% 6-55 (61) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $13.62 | $14.83 | +$1.22 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $4.79 | $5.13 | +$0.34 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $3.05 | +$0.2 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.66 | $2.46 | -$1.2 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
Invested
$195
Value
$300
PnL
+$105
Record
10%
6-55 (61)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$13.62
Value
$14.83
PnL
+$1.22
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$0.34
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$2.46
PnL
-$1.2
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.