Clippers vs. Suns
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (100%) · Suns at 62¢ · $721 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Suns
4
Suns 100%
1 arb excluded
$721.47
-$4.65
61.5¢ → 61.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSuns at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Sunsavg 61.5¢ | $623.68 | $618.54 | -$5.14 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Sunsavg 61.7¢ | $62.22 | $61.87 | -$0.35 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 61.7¢ | $41.96 | $41.48 | -$0.48 | |
| └ Clippers leg | Clippersavg 38.8¢ | $20.26 | $20.39 | +$0.13 | |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Sunsavg 59¢ | $15.17 | $15.68 | +$0.39 | 10% 20-182 (202) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Sunsavg 60.7¢ | $22.82 | $12.7 | +$0.21 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sunsavg 62¢ | $12.9 | $12.69 | -$0.1 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
nigiri99Invested
$623.68
Value
$618.54
PnL
-$5.14
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
Invested
$62.22
Value
$61.87
PnL
-$0.35
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.17
Value
$15.68
PnL
+$0.39
Record
10%
20-182 (202)
Invested
$22.82
Value
$12.7
PnL
+$0.21
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$12.69
PnL
-$0.1
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.