Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$142.05

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 51¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,994

Combined PnL+$144.87

Under4 traders

Total Value$565.94

Total Shares1,054

Combined PnL-$2.81

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 46.5¢	$667.47	$789.06	+$121.59	48% 783-852 (1635)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 52¢	$334.75	$334.75	+$0	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 48.2¢	$213.5	$234.79	+$21.29	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 57¢	$194.37	$194.37	+$0	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 50¢	$49.5	$52.47	+$2.97	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 44¢	$28.16	$27.52	-$1.28	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$25.67	$21.86	-$3.81	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 43¢	$15.48	$15.48	+$0	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$13.97	$14.96	+$1	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 43¢	$7.31	$7.31	+$0	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 41¢	$6.69	$7.01	+$0.33	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 43¢	$5	$2.13	-$0.03	47% 2290-2563 (4853)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$667.47

Value

$789.06

PnL

+$121.59

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$334.75

Value

$334.75

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$213.5

Value

$234.79

PnL

+$21.29

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$194.37

Value

$194.37

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$49.5

Value

$52.47

PnL

+$2.97

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$28.16

Value

$27.52

PnL

-$1.28

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.67

Value

$21.86

PnL

-$3.81

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$15.48

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.97

Value

$14.96

PnL

+$1

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$7.31

Value

$7.31

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$6.69

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$0.33

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2290-2563 (4853)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.