Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 47¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 31

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$9.18

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 46.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares16,173

Combined PnL-$80.87

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares13,174

Combined PnL+$90.04

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$49.24	61% 3922-2462 (6384)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.6¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$46.75	54% 17123-14335 (31458)
RO royalestakeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$26.6	46% 375-436 (811)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 52¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$23.09	54% 590-507 (1097)
TE texaskid	Underavg 53¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.34	51% 393-381 (774)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 47¢	$470	$465	-$5	53% 5579-4941 (10520)
RN1	Underavg 52.5¢	$262.5	$267.5	+$5	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53¢	$100.75	$101.62	+$0.86	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$53.21	$52.44	-$0.77	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$29.07	$28.37	-$0.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.6¢	$24.14	$24.08	-$0.06
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.33	-$0.02	47% 2272-2555 (4827)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727.51

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$49.24

Record

61%

3922-2462 (6384)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,631.26

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$46.75

Record

54%

17123-14335 (31458)

royalestakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$26.6

Record

46%

375-436 (811)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$2,401.85

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$23.09

Record

54%

590-507 (1097)

texaskid

Under

Invested

$1,519.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.34

Record

51%

393-381 (774)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$470

Value

$465

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5579-4941 (10520)

RN1

Under

Invested

$262.5

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$100.75

Value

$101.62

PnL

+$0.86

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$53.21

Value

$52.44

PnL

-$0.77

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

Both legs:

Over$29.0747.7¢-$0.7

Under$24.1453.6¢-$0.06

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2272-2555 (4827)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.