Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 3 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (21%) · Under at 41¢ · $27K held · ends Oct 31

Over60¢Under40¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 21%

Total Value

$26.9K

Combined PnL

$402.65

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 40.5¢

-22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 14 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$23.6K

Total Shares45,221

Combined PnL+$249.93

Over11 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,387

Combined PnL+$152.72

Under — 21%Over — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Underavg 52¢	$19.2K	$19.4K	+$185.02	54% 590-507 (1097)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$79.18	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$14.27	52% 4716-4430 (9146)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 47.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$14.64	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
HRTrading	Overavg 48¢	$431.23	$539.18	+$107.95	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
OD Oddstorm	Overavg 48¢	$450.66	$445.97	-$4.69	38% 383-624 (1007)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 51.4¢	$367.05	$403.71	+$36.66	48% 783-852 (1635)
TA takeormake	Overavg 54¢	$267.83	$270.31	+$2.48	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Overavg 48¢	$230	$227.6	-$2.4	58% 219-159 (378)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$93.95	$92.05	-$1.9	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 48¢	$47.52	$47.03	-$0.5	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
GA GamblingOdyssey<$100	Overavg 48¢	$27.2	$27.49	+$0.28	51% 851-816 (1667)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Overavg 47¢	$19.43	$19.63	+$0.21	47% 2473-2784 (5257)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.8	-$0.03	47% 2290-2563 (4853)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Under

Invested

$19,242.13

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$185.02

Record

54%

590-507 (1097)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,683

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$79.18

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,426.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$14.27

Record

52%

4716-4430 (9146)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,209.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$14.64

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$431.23

Value

$539.18

PnL

+$107.95

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Oddstorm

Over

Invested

$450.66

Value

$445.97

PnL

-$4.69

Record

38%

383-624 (1007)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$367.05

Value

$403.71

PnL

+$36.66

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$267.83

Value

$270.31

PnL

+$2.48

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Over

Invested

$230

Value

$227.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

58%

219-159 (378)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$93.95

Value

$92.05

PnL

-$1.9

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$47.52

Value

$47.03

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

GamblingOdyssey<$100

Over

Invested

$27.2

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$0.28

Record

51%

851-816 (1667)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Over

Invested

$19.43

Value

$19.63

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

2473-2784 (5257)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2290-2563 (4853)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 14 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.