Clippers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 220.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$18.2

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 67¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,951

Combined PnL+$19.95

Under2 traders

Total Value$12.54

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$1.75

Over — 78%Under — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 56¢	$640.83	$646.55	+$5.72	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 55¢	$251.35	$258.21	+$6.85	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Overavg 44¢	$80.3	$83.04	+$2.74	48% 783-852 (1635)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 46.1¢	$48.83	$53	+$4.17	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 55¢	$33.3	$33.39	+$0.09	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 55¢	$8.8	$9.04	+$0.24	50% 6977-6973 (13950)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$7.92	$7.83	-$0.09	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 55¢	$4.8	$4.93	+$0.13	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 45.3¢	$6.37	$4.71	-$1.66	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$640.83

Value

$646.55

PnL

+$5.72

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$251.35

Value

$258.21

PnL

+$6.85

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Over

Invested

$80.3

Value

$83.04

PnL

+$2.74

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$48.83

Value

$53

PnL

+$4.17

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$33.3

Value

$33.39

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

6977-6973 (13950)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.92

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.37

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$1.66

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.