Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Timberwolves (52%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (100%) · Clippers at 49¢ · $608 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
6
Clippers 100%
$607.71
$11.76
47.7¢ → 48.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerdoniaCTR | Clippersavg 47.9¢ | $155.67 | $157.51 | +$1.83 | 54% 3325-2874 (6199) |
 RN1CTR | Clippersavg 47.8¢ | $155.12 | $157.49 | +$2.37 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Clippersavg 47¢ | $201.94 | $132.72 | +$5.66 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 48¢ | $78.17 | $78.99 | +$0.81 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 48¢ | $59.04 | $59.66 | +$0.62 | 50% 3804-3764 (7568) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 47.5¢ | $20.88 | $21.34 | +$0.46 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
Invested
$155.67
Value
$157.51
PnL
+$1.83
Record
54%
3325-2874 (6199)
RN1CTRInvested
$155.12
Value
$157.49
PnL
+$2.37
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$201.94
Value
$132.72
PnL
+$5.66
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$78.17
Value
$78.99
PnL
+$0.81
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$59.04
Value
$59.66
PnL
+$0.62
Record
50%
3804-3764 (7568)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$21.34
PnL
+$0.46
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.