Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Clippers, while the market favors Timberwolves (56%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (86%) · Clippers at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Clippers
7
Clippers 86%
$1.2K
$24.05
43¢ → 44.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidClippers at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Clippersavg 43¢ | $549.63 | $562.42 | +$12.78 | 62% 4127-2523 (6650) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Clippersavg 43¢ | $224.42 | $229.42 | +$5 | 58% 41528-30164 (71692) |
 RN1 | Timberwolvesavg 56¢ | $140 | $140 | -$0 | 54% 56351-48500 (104851) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Clippersavg 43¢ | $136.74 | $139.92 | +$3.18 | 45% 670-829 (1499) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Clippersavg 43¢ | $147.92 | $137.51 | +$3.09 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 44¢ | $11.82 | $11.82 | +$0 | 54% 17123-14336 (31459) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Clippersavg 44¢ | $9.4 | $9.4 | -$0 | 58% 28432-20995 (49427) |
Invested
$549.63
Value
$562.42
PnL
+$12.78
Record
62%
4127-2523 (6650)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$224.42
Value
$229.42
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
41528-30164 (71692)
RN1Invested
$140
Value
$140
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56351-48500 (104851)
Invested
$136.74
Value
$139.92
PnL
+$3.18
Record
45%
670-829 (1499)
Invested
$147.92
Value
$137.51
PnL
+$3.09
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
Invested
$11.82
Value
$11.82
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
17123-14336 (31459)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28432-20995 (49427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.