Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (50%) · Timberwolves at 75¢ · $846 held · ended Oct 31

Timberwolves75¢Clippers25¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 50%

Total Value

$846.15

Combined PnL

$9.23

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 74.5¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves75%

Clippers26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$721.4

Total Shares1,216

Combined PnL-$12.02

Clippers3 traders

Total Value$124.75

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$21.25

Timberwolves — 50%Clippers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Timberwolvesavg 60¢	$716.4	$704.46	-$11.94	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Clippersavg 25¢	$43.67	$71.61	+$27.95	55% 2868-2301 (5169)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Clippersavg 47¢	$52.45	$45.76	-$6.7	48% 788-869 (1657)
HRTrading<$100	Timberwolvesavg 75¢	$10.39	$10.08	-$0.31	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Clippersavg 41¢	$7.38	$7.38	-$0	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
VeryLucky888<$100	Timberwolvesavg 57¢	$6.63	$6.86	+$0.23	58% 41637-30243 (71880)

SunlineTicker

Timberwolves

Invested

$716.4

Value

$704.46

PnL

-$11.94

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

Anon455CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$43.67

Value

$71.61

PnL

+$27.95

Record

55%

2868-2301 (5169)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$52.45

Value

$45.76

PnL

-$6.7

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

HRTrading<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$10.39

Value

$10.08

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

VeryLucky888<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

41637-30243 (71880)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.