Clippers vs. Timberwolves

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Timberwolves (75%) · Timberwolves at 70¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Clippers30¢Timberwolves70¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Timberwolves

Consensus Traders

Timberwolves 75%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$67.33

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 69.7¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers30%

Timberwolves70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,664

Combined PnL+$79.24

Clippers1 trader

Total Value$102.72

Total Shares331

Combined PnL-$11.91

Timberwolves — 75%Clippers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AA aaabbb	Timberwolvesavg 67.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$71.06	50% 443-443 (886)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Timberwolvesavg 69.7¢	$736.34	$736.34	+$8.41	89% 242-30 (272)
OD OddstormCTR	Clippersavg 33.2¢	$114.63	$102.72	-$11.91	38% 365-593 (958)
IC ic4cream<$100	Timberwolvesavg 71¢	$12.58	$12.35	-$0.23	59% 2626-1843 (4469)

aaabbb

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,754.91

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$71.06

Record

50%

443-443 (886)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Timberwolves

Invested

$736.34

Value

$736.34

PnL

+$8.41

Record

89%

242-30 (272)

OddstormCTR

Clippers

Invested

$114.63

Value

$102.72

PnL

-$11.91

Record

38%

365-593 (958)

ic4cream<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$12.58

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$0.23

Record

59%

2626-1843 (4469)

Research grade

AvoidTimberwolves at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Timberwolves

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Timberwolves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.7%

69.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.