Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 40¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 2

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$438.09

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 40¢

-21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares24,738

Combined PnL-$123.63

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,808

Combined PnL+$561.72

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Underavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0	52% 5865-5454 (11319)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 52.2¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$175.73	48% 1127-1228 (2355)
AW awesoCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$113.97	47% 58-65 (123)
TA takeormake	Overavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$490.42	53% 4359-3820 (8179)
latvian.demonCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$971.55	$961.84	-$9.71	54% 718-605 (1323)
TO tomb2456	Overavg 49¢	$516.69	$527.24	+$10.54	49% 300-313 (613)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 51.4¢	$345.68	$299.01	-$46.67	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 45.9¢	$203.71	$264.47	+$60.76	53% 11153-9754 (20907)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 51.7¢	$181.29	$166.04	-$15.25	53% 6253-5611 (11864)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.7¢	$142.91	$125.71	-$17.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$38.38	$40.33	+$1.95
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$27.78	$27.24	-$0.54	50% 19648-20016 (39664)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 58.7¢	$28.21	$11.93	-$4.95	56% 14473-11230 (25703)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$4,956.85

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5865-5454 (11319)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$4,410.93

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$175.73

Record

48%

1127-1228 (2355)

awesoCTR

Under

Invested

$1,785.53

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$113.97

Record

47%

58-65 (123)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,293.49

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$490.42

Record

53%

4359-3820 (8179)

latvian.demonCTR

Under

Invested

$971.55

Value

$961.84

PnL

-$9.71

Record

54%

718-605 (1323)

tomb2456

Over

Invested

$516.69

Value

$527.24

PnL

+$10.54

Record

49%

300-313 (613)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$345.68

Value

$299.01

PnL

-$46.67

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$203.71

Value

$264.47

PnL

+$60.76

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$181.29

Value

$166.04

PnL

-$15.25

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

Both legs:

Under$142.9151.7¢-$17.2

Over$38.3851.9¢+$1.95

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.78

Value

$27.24

PnL

-$0.54

Record

50%

19648-20016 (39664)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.21

Value

$11.93

PnL

-$4.95

Record

56%

14473-11230 (25703)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.