Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 47¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
$7.8K
$11.66
46.9¢ → 47¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | +$0 | 61% 3965-2495 (6460) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 53¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$0 | 51% 4818-4540 (9358) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 53¢ | $672.04 | $672.04 | +$0 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 45.4¢ | $208.1 | $215.56 | +$7.46 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $27.3 | $32.9 | +$4.2 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $12.92 | $12.92 | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,727
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
3965-2495 (6460)
Invested
$2,185.3
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
4818-4540 (9358)
Invested
$672.04
Value
$672.04
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$208.1
Value
$215.56
PnL
+$7.46
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$27.3
Value
$32.9
PnL
+$4.2
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$12.92
Value
$12.92
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.