Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 218.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 44¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$10.0K
-$63.48
45¢ → 43.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 54.8¢ | $8.2K | $8.2K | -$60.11 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.8¢ | $5.0K | $5.2K | +$156.12 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.7¢ | $3.2K | $3.0K | -$216.24 | |
GO goldmynameCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$54.9 | 60% 145-96 (241) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 45.3¢ | $580 | $217.5 | -$10 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53.5¢ | $30.82 | $31.99 | +$1.18 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $28.54 | $28.89 | +$0.35 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $9.2 | $8.7 | -$0.1 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
Invested
$8,220.27
Value
$8.2K
PnL
-$60.11
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,647
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$54.9
Record
60%
145-96 (241)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$580
Value
$217.5
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$30.82
Value
$31.99
PnL
+$1.18
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$28.54
Value
$28.89
PnL
+$0.35
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.