Spread: Warriors (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (44%) · Warriors at 51¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 2

Warriors51¢Clippers49¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

-$194.67

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors51%

Clippers50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares26,996

Combined PnL-$187.74

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares19,588

Combined PnL-$6.94

Warriors — 44%Clippers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Warriorsavg 51.2¢	$13.4K	$13.3K	-$85.32	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Clippersavg 48¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$32.55	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Clippersavg 47.9¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$77.66	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
AY ay118CTR	Clippersavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$25	47% 36-41 (77)
Reformedx	Warriorsavg 52.7¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$103.95	52% 839-788 (1627)
LZ lzh1CTR	Clippersavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.08	43% 472-634 (1106)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	Warriorsavg 52.2¢	$261	$262.5	+$1.5	68% 1464-702 (2166)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Clippersavg 48¢	$142.7	$143.64	+$0.94	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 48¢	$76.15	$78.49	+$2.35
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 51.6¢	$66.55	$65.15	-$1.4
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46.7¢	$40.86	$40.94	+$0.08	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
FO forecastication4<$100	Warriorsavg 51¢	$3.84	$3.88	+$0.04	49% 1199-1227 (2426)

HomeRunHazard

Warriors

Invested

$13,408.06

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$85.32

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

UpTheBluesCTR

Clippers

Invested

$3,125.16

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.55

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

SunlineTickerCTR

Clippers

Invested

$2,603.61

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$77.66

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

ay118CTR

Clippers

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

Reformedx

Warriors

Invested

$2,523.27

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$103.95

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

lzh1CTR

Clippers

Invested

$1,229.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$13.08

Record

43%

472-634 (1106)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

Warriors

Invested

$261

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

68%

1464-702 (2166)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$142.7

Value

$143.64

PnL

+$0.94

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

Both legs:

Clippers$76.1548¢+$2.35

Warriors$66.5551.6¢-$1.4

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$40.86

Value

$40.94

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

forecastication4<$100

Warriors

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.