Clippers vs. Warriors

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (55%) · Warriors at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 2

Clippers45¢Warriors55¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 55%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 55.5¢

-13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers45%

Warriors56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares12,301

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$77.27

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$18.23

Warriors — 55%Clippers — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Warriorsavg 70¢	$5.6K	$4.3K	$-1.3K	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
CL claudesports	Warriorsavg 39¢	$932.1	$1.2K	+$262.9	35% 349-649 (998)
PE peepeepooppoop	Warriorsavg 75¢	$862.61	$575.08	-$287.54	52% 2041-1863 (3904)
TA takeormake	Warriorsavg 65¢	$267.97	$206	-$61.97	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
RollAwayTheDew	Warriorsavg 62.8¢	$170.24	$145.12	-$25.12	53% 404-355 (759)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Clippersavg 56¢	$22.4	$22.8	+$0.4	50% 7913-7939 (15852)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Clippersavg 42¢	$18.54	$21.42	+$2.88	59% 2641-1851 (4492)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Clippersavg 23¢	$7.38	$16.04	+$8.66	42% 1720-2350 (4070)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Warriorsavg 66.4¢	$16.61	$12.5	-$4.11	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
US User7429CTR<$100	Clippersavg 36¢	$7.29	$10.13	+$2.84	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clippersavg 24.9¢	$3.42	$6.87	+$3.45	57% 13860-10628 (24488)

hi774c

Warriors

Invested

$5,637.1

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

claudesports

Warriors

Invested

$932.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$262.9

Record

35%

349-649 (998)

peepeepooppoop

Warriors

Invested

$862.61

Value

$575.08

PnL

-$287.54

Record

52%

2041-1863 (3904)

takeormake

Warriors

Invested

$267.97

Value

$206

PnL

-$61.97

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

RollAwayTheDew

Warriors

Invested

$170.24

Value

$145.12

PnL

-$25.12

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

RLWGCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$22.4

Value

$22.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

7913-7939 (15852)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$18.54

Value

$21.42

PnL

+$2.88

Record

59%

2641-1851 (4492)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.38

Value

$16.04

PnL

+$8.66

Record

42%

1720-2350 (4070)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Warriors

Invested

$16.61

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$4.11

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

User7429CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.29

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$2.84

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.42

Value

$6.87

PnL

+$3.45

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.