Pacers vs. 76ers: O/U 224.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 51¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.1K

Combined PnL

-$174.55

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 50.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$22.9K

Total Shares45,311

Combined PnL-$74.55

Over3 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares35,136

Combined PnL-$100

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740	Underavg 50.8¢	$18.6K	$18.5K	-$125.35	42% 13-18 (31)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$12.2K	$12.2K	-$0	53% 554-484 (1038)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$54.84	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$54.84
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Overavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$100	52% 113-104 (217)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 50¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$34.29	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
VE Venusian	Underavg 50¢	$554.48	$560.02	+$5.54	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$452.91	$456.41	+$3.5	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$277.91	$277.91	-$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$175	$178.5	+$3.5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$432.25	$435.75	+$3.5	42% 547-747 (1294)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$257.25	$257.25	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$175	$178.5	+$3.5
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49.2¢	$252.82	$242.61	+$8.63	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$72.04	$72.76	+$0.72	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$66.53	$66.53	+$0	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49¢	$49	$50.5	+$1.5	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8	$8	+$0	44% 337-422 (759)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.77	$2.89	+$0.12	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740

Under

Invested

$18,609.18

Value

$18.5K

PnL

-$125.35

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$12,250

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

554-484 (1038)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,091.3

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$54.84

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

Under$2,666.350¢+$54.84

Over$2,42549¢+$0

AppleTiiimeCTR

Over

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

52%

113-104 (217)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,429.23

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$34.29

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$554.48

Value

$560.02

PnL

+$5.54

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$452.91

Value

$456.41

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

Both legs:

Invested

$432.25

Value

$435.75

PnL

+$3.5

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

Both legs:

Invested

$252.82

Value

$242.61

PnL

+$8.63

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$72.04

Value

$72.76

PnL

+$0.72

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.53

Value

$66.53

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$49

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.89

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.