Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 248.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.3K
$849.33
50.1¢ → 94.3¢
+88% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA gagarin59 | Underavg 49¢ | $3.3K | $2.2K | +$582.87 | 53% 597-533 (1130) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 56.4¢ | $324.09 | $528.44 | +$204.35 | — |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 42.5¢ | $253.99 | $244.93 | -$9.06 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 50.2¢ | $1.7K | $157.63 | +$45.25 | 56% 2435-1897 (4332) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 48¢ | $165.5 | $98.74 | +$19.65 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61.6¢ | $11.95 | $18.14 | +$6.19 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $0.58 | $0.77 | +$0.08 | 54% 54908-46856 (101764) |
Invested
$3,331.38
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$582.87
Record
53%
597-533 (1130)
Invested
$324.09
Value
$528.44
PnL
+$204.35
Record
—
Invested
$253.99
Value
$244.93
PnL
-$9.06
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$1,723.58
Value
$157.63
PnL
+$45.25
Record
56%
2435-1897 (4332)
Invested
$165.5
Value
$98.74
PnL
+$19.65
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.95
Value
$18.14
PnL
+$6.19
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
54908-46856 (101764)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.