Pacers vs. Bucks: O/U 246.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$2.0K
$498.82
46.9¢ → 94¢
+100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Underavg 44¢ | $1.5K | $975 | +$315 | 56% 2435-1897 (4332) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 58.7¢ | $243.35 | $377.4 | +$134.05 | — |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 43.7¢ | $305.5 | $335.88 | +$30.39 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 44.8¢ | $96.76 | $103.68 | +$6.92 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 43.9¢ | $170.18 | $94.45 | +$19.77 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.5¢ | $69.17 | $64.44 | -$4.73 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 56.5¢ | $14.8 | $9.9 | -$2.57 | 57% 12546-9489 (22035) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$975
PnL
+$315
Record
56%
2435-1897 (4332)
Invested
$243.35
Value
$377.4
PnL
+$134.05
Record
—
Invested
$305.5
Value
$335.88
PnL
+$30.39
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$96.76
Value
$103.68
PnL
+$6.92
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$170.18
Value
$94.45
PnL
+$19.77
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$69.17
Value
$64.44
PnL
-$4.73
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$2.57
Record
57%
12546-9489 (22035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.