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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Pacers — but Bucks won instead.

Spread: Bucks (-3.5)

Resolved Bucks. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Pacers. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Pacers 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bucks100%

Pacers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,258

Combined PnL$-6.0K

Bucks3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,062

Combined PnL+$954.07

Pacers — 73%Bucks — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Pacersavg 58.8¢	$6.2K	—	$-3.7K	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
TA takeormake	Bucksavg 53.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$954.06	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pacersavg 44.4¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
AN Anon455CTR	Pacersavg 43.5¢	$2.2K	—	$-1.2K	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
SH shoemanhereARB<$100	Pacersavg 32¢	$124.39	$44	-$80.39	56% 7005-5416 (12421)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 56¢	$24.64	$44	+$19.36
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 32¢	$99.75	—	-$99.75
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 25.2¢	$56.86	—	-$56.86	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
LO looppau<$100	Bucksavg 99.9¢	$10	$10	+$0.01	99% 10146-47 (10193)
KingVon1CTR	Pacersavg 41.8¢	$214	—	-$89.54	58% 331-244 (575)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Pacersavg 42.8¢	—	—	+$0	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Pacersavg 63.7¢	—	—	+$0	57% 12548-9494 (22042)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Pacersavg 34¢	—	—	+$0	60% 3191-2139 (5330)
US User7429<$100	Bucksavg 56¢	—	—	+$0	55% 7964-6450 (14414)

justaluckydudeCTR

Invested

$6,193.73

Value

—

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

Invested

$2,052.48

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$954.06

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Invested

$1,012.54

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Invested

$2,227.14

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

shoemanhereARB<$100

Invested

$124.39

Value

$44

PnL

-$80.39

Record

56%

7005-5416 (12421)

Both legs:

Bucks$24.6456¢+$19.36

Pacers$99.7532¢-$99.75

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$56.86

Value

—

PnL

-$56.86

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

10146-47 (10193)

Invested

$214

Value

—

PnL

-$89.54

Record

58%

331-244 (575)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

3191-2139 (5330)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7964-6450 (14414)

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7248997b...2ead94

Slug

nba-ind-mil-2026-10-26-spread-home-3pt5

Traders in this Market

justaluckydude

Pacers — $0

takeormake

Bucks — $2.1K

Flaznorp

Pacers — $0

Anon455

Pacers — $0

shoemanhere

Arbitrage — excluded

HRTrading

Pacers — $0

looppau

Bucks — $10

KingVon1

Pacers — $0

HomeRunHazard

Pacers — $0

ghorrock

Pacers — $0

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