Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 45¢ · $793 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$792.5
-$4.03
44¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $555.02 | $561.31 | +$6.3 | 54% 17100-14316 (31416) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 56¢ | $119.84 | $118.77 | -$1.07 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $57 | $50.38 | -$6.62 | 53% 369-332 (701) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $46.44 | $42.57 | -$3.87 | 59% 9885-6859 (16744) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $10.5 | $12.63 | +$2.13 | 53% 5572-4928 (10500) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $7.74 | $6.84 | -$0.9 | 57% 13544-10382 (23926) |
Invested
$555.02
Value
$561.31
PnL
+$6.3
Record
54%
17100-14316 (31416)
Invested
$119.84
Value
$118.77
PnL
-$1.07
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$57
Value
$50.38
PnL
-$6.62
Record
53%
369-332 (701)
poshposh<$100Invested
$46.44
Value
$42.57
PnL
-$3.87
Record
59%
9885-6859 (16744)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$12.63
PnL
+$2.13
Record
53%
5572-4928 (10500)
Invested
$7.74
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$0.9
Record
57%
13544-10382 (23926)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.