Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 48¢ · $657 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 100%
$656.99
-$8.2
47.2¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $470 | $470 | -$5 | 53% 5564-4927 (10491) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.2¢ | $95.41 | $93.12 | -$2.29 | 54% 3281-2830 (6111) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 | 53% 11522-10022 (21544) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $24.57 | $24.31 | -$0.26 | 54% 17065-14298 (31363) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $14.88 | $14.57 | -$0.31 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $8.33 | $7.99 | -$0.34 | 58% 28351-20930 (49281) |
Invested
$470
Value
$470
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5564-4927 (10491)
Invested
$95.41
Value
$93.12
PnL
-$2.29
Record
54%
3281-2830 (6111)
Invested
$47
Value
$47
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
11522-10022 (21544)
Invested
$24.57
Value
$24.31
PnL
-$0.26
Record
54%
17065-14298 (31363)
Invested
$14.88
Value
$14.57
PnL
-$0.31
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$8.33
Value
$7.99
PnL
-$0.34
Record
58%
28351-20930 (49281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.