Pacers vs. Heat: O/U 236.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 88¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$115.15

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 88¢

+75% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,329

Combined PnL+$110.99

Under3 traders

Total Value$27.64

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$4.16

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$105	54% 17125-14337 (31462)
GA GamblingOdyssey	Overavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.5	51% 851-816 (1667)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 51¢	$82.16	$82.97	+$0.81	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 52¢	$69.94	$69.27	-$0.67	50% 3808-3766 (7574)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 58¢	$77.14	$68.5	-$8.64	54% 10681-9281 (19962)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$20.09	$19.88	-$0.21	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$0.99	$5.33	+$4.34	59% 30410-21120 (51530)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.43	+$0.02	47% 2296-2570 (4866)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$105

Record

54%

17125-14337 (31462)

GamblingOdyssey

Over

Invested

$1,479

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.5

Record

51%

851-816 (1667)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$82.16

Value

$82.97

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$69.94

Value

$69.27

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

3808-3766 (7574)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$77.14

Value

$68.5

PnL

-$8.64

Record

54%

10681-9281 (19962)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.09

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.99

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$4.34

Record

59%

30410-21120 (51530)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2296-2570 (4866)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.