Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Pacers (54%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-9.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (33%) · Heat at 47¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
6
Heat 33%
$19.0K
-$176.85
47¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PP ppku6298CTR | Heatavg 47¢ | $15.1K | $15.0K | -$160.85 | 45% 84-104 (188) |
AY ay118CTR | Heatavg 47¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$29.26 | 50% 19-19 (38) |
HE Herdonia | Pacersavg 52.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.65 | 54% 3325-2874 (6199) |
38 38791873984189 | Pacersavg 52.8¢ | $108.77 | $110.15 | +$1.39 | 46% 7988-9443 (17431) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Pacersavg 53¢ | $32.36 | $32.42 | +$0.32 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Pacersavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $10.7 | -$0.1 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
Invested
$15,120
Value
$15.0K
PnL
-$160.85
Record
45%
84-104 (188)
Invested
$2,750
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$29.26
Record
50%
19-19 (38)
Invested
$1,107.54
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.65
Record
54%
3325-2874 (6199)
Invested
$108.77
Value
$110.15
PnL
+$1.39
Record
46%
7988-9443 (17431)
Invested
$32.36
Value
$32.42
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.