Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Heat (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (40%) · Pacers at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
5
Pacers 40%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
$15.09
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerdoniaCTR | Pacersavg 48¢ | $783.31 | $798.35 | +$15.03 | 54% 3325-2874 (6199) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Pacersavg 48.3¢ | $489.99 | $494.99 | +$5 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 48.3¢ | $362.5 | $367.5 | +$5 | |
| └ Heat leg | Heatavg 51¢ | $127.5 | $127.5 | +$0 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Heatavg 50.5¢ | $595.09 | $476.62 | +$7.5 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
| └ Heat leg | Heatavg 50.5¢ | $240.53 | $245.16 | +$5.8 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 48.1¢ | $229.76 | $231.46 | +$1.7 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Heatavg 51¢ | $13.26 | $13.26 | +$0.13 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Heatavg 50¢ | $10.01 | $10.21 | +$0.2 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 50¢ | $10 | $9.7 | -$0.3 | 55% 7053-5657 (12710) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Heatavg 51¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.03 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
Invested
$783.31
Value
$798.35
PnL
+$15.03
Record
54%
3325-2874 (6199)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$489.99
Value
$494.99
PnL
+$5
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Both legs:
Invested
$595.09
Value
$476.62
PnL
+$7.5
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.26
Value
$13.26
PnL
+$0.13
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Invested
$10.01
Value
$10.21
PnL
+$0.2
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
55%
7053-5657 (12710)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.