Spread: Heat (-6.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (50%) · Heat at 59¢ · $255 held · ends Oct 31

Heat59¢Pacers41¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$254.96

Combined PnL

$0.34

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Heat59%

Pacers42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat2 traders

Total Value$141.4

Total Shares244

Combined PnL+$0.26

Pacers2 traders

Total Value$27.87

Total Shares66

Combined PnL+$0.08

Heat — 50%Pacers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Heatavg 58¢	$126.32	$126.32	-$0	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Heatavg 55.6¢	$93.76	$85.69	+$3.72	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 55.6¢	$55.93	$58.33	+$3.07
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 41¢	$26.71	$27.36	+$0.65
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 42¢	$24.57	$24.57	+$0	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Heatavg 57¢	$14.82	$15.08	+$0.26	58% 28411-20972 (49383)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Pacersavg 41¢	$3.22	$3.3	+$0.08	54% 3325-2874 (6199)

VeryLucky888

Heat

Invested

$126.32

Value

$126.32

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$93.76

Value

$85.69

PnL

+$3.72

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

Both legs:

Heat$55.9355.6¢+$3.07

Pacers$26.7141¢+$0.65

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$24.57

Value

$24.57

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Heat

Invested

$14.82

Value

$15.08

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$3.22

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.