Pacers vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 61¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Over61¢Under39¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$6.42

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 61¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,417

Combined PnL+$83.34

Under7 traders

Total Value$535.56

Total Shares1,365

Combined PnL-$76.92

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 55.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$37.66	54% 20343-17178 (37521)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.7¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$164.74
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.9¢	$756.72	$629.64	-$127.09
nigiri99	Overavg 55.6¢	$864.68	$943.28	+$78.6	45% 14911-18249 (33160)
HI hi774c	Overavg 53¢	$502.67	$507.42	+$4.74	46% 5712-6614 (12326)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 45¢	$251.92	$218.33	-$33.59	50% 49353-48879 (98232)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 44.1¢	$180.87	$159.88	-$20.99	51% 28897-28239 (57136)
RN1CTR	Underavg 45¢	$112.5	$97.5	-$15	53% 72174-63643 (135817)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$64.7	$58.94	-$5.76	53% 28460-25726 (54186)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.9¢	$39.89	$33.93	-$5.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.5¢	$24.81	$25.01	+$0.21
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$25.47	$23.47	-$2	48% 72298-78071 (150369)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$26.17	$22.73	-$3.44	57% 25623-19105 (44728)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$13.25	$11.7	-$1.55	56% 9045-7130 (16175)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$1.95	-$0.35	53% 14851-13051 (27902)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,493.2

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$37.66

Record

54%

20343-17178 (37521)

Both legs:

Over$1,736.4855.7¢+$164.74

Under$756.7246.9¢-$127.09

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$864.68

Value

$943.28

PnL

+$78.6

Record

45%

14911-18249 (33160)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$502.67

Value

$507.42

PnL

+$4.74

Record

46%

5712-6614 (12326)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$251.92

Value

$218.33

PnL

-$33.59

Record

50%

49353-48879 (98232)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$180.87

Value

$159.88

PnL

-$20.99

Record

51%

28897-28239 (57136)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$112.5

Value

$97.5

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

72174-63643 (135817)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$64.7

Value

$58.94

PnL

-$5.76

Record

53%

28460-25726 (54186)

Both legs:

Under$39.8945.9¢-$5.96

Over$24.8160.5¢+$0.21

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.47

Value

$23.47

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

72298-78071 (150369)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.17

Value

$22.73

PnL

-$3.44

Record

57%

25623-19105 (44728)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.25

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$1.55

Record

56%

9045-7130 (16175)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

14851-13051 (27902)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.