Pacers vs. Mavericks

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (44%) · Mavericks at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Pacers38¢Mavericks62¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$3.31

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers38%

Mavericks63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,627

Combined PnL-$2.76

Pacers5 traders

Total Value$458.77

Total Shares1,133

Combined PnL-$0.56

Mavericks — 44%Pacers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Mavericksavg 62.7¢	$491.67	$490.48	-$1.2	49% 6677-6879 (13556)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pacersavg 38¢	$737.9	$284.09	+$3.69	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
nigiri99	Mavericksavg 58¢	$228.52	$242.31	+$13.79	45% 14446-17799 (32245)
38 38791873984189	Mavericksavg 65.7¢	$902.46	$234.03	-$15.65	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Mavericksavg 58.8¢	$151.54	$144	+$3.75	57% 24733-18312 (43045)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 58.8¢	$84.05	$89.42	+$5.95
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 39¢	$56.78	$54.58	-$2.2
OD OddstormCTR	Pacersavg 41.5¢	$224.51	$89.05	-$6	48% 8346-8906 (17252)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pacersavg 36¢	$126.1	$57.84	+$2.23	51% 5742-5580 (11322)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 62.3¢	$69.74	$46.2	+$0.3	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Pacersavg 40¢	$52	$20.02	-$0.78	50% 1574-1589 (3163)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 37¢	$20.19	$7.77	+$0.3	47% 2268-2572 (4840)

purplegatto

Mavericks

Invested

$491.67

Value

$490.48

PnL

-$1.2

Record

49%

6677-6879 (13556)

LightParadoxCTR

Pacers

Invested

$737.9

Value

$284.09

PnL

+$3.69

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

nigiri99

Mavericks

Invested

$228.52

Value

$242.31

PnL

+$13.79

Record

45%

14446-17799 (32245)

38791873984189

Mavericks

Invested

$902.46

Value

$234.03

PnL

-$15.65

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

ghorrockARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$151.54

Value

$144

PnL

+$3.75

Record

57%

24733-18312 (43045)

Both legs:

Mavericks$84.0558.8¢+$5.95

Pacers$56.7839¢-$2.2

OddstormCTR

Pacers

Invested

$224.51

Value

$89.05

PnL

-$6

Record

48%

8346-8906 (17252)

6512395314597884CTR

Pacers

Invested

$126.1

Value

$57.84

PnL

+$2.23

Record

51%

5742-5580 (11322)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$69.74

Value

$46.2

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$52

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

1574-1589 (3163)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$20.19

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$0.3

Record

47%

2268-2572 (4840)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMavericks 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Pacers 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.