Rockets vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$155.04

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,770

Combined PnL+$153.83

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,909

Combined PnL+$1.21

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.4K	+$150.52	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 48¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$0	11% 16-126 (142)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53¢	$351.15	$354.47	+$3.31	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$400	$196	-$4	64% 150-86 (236)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 52¢	$38.22	$38.22	-$0	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$14.74	$15.38	+$0.64	35% 674-1226 (1900)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.6	+$0.2	56% 695-541 (1236)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$123.43	$8.8	+$0.37	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	43% 877-1157 (2034)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,217.88

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$150.52

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$3,279.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

11%

16-126 (142)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$351.15

Value

$354.47

PnL

+$3.31

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$196

PnL

-$4

Record

64%

150-86 (236)

Both legs:

Invested

$38.22

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.74

Value

$15.38

PnL

+$0.64

Record

35%

674-1226 (1900)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

695-541 (1236)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$123.43

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$0.37

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

877-1157 (2034)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.