Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (67%) · Rockets at 53¢ · $278 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
6
Rockets 67%
$278.25
$0.6
53.1¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $123.82 | $121.48 | -$2.34 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Rocketsavg 53¢ | $87.45 | $86.63 | -$0.83 | 50% 760-746 (1506) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 44¢ | $57.75 | $61.74 | +$3.99 | 38% 1425-2300 (3725) |
SU suntori<$100 | Rocketsavg 54¢ | $3.59 | $3.46 | -$0.13 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Rocketsavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.6 | -$0.25 | 43% 875-1153 (2028) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.35 | +$0.15 | 38% 1401-2279 (3680) |
Invested
$123.82
Value
$121.48
PnL
-$2.34
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$87.45
Value
$86.63
PnL
-$0.83
Record
50%
760-746 (1506)
Invested
$57.75
Value
$61.74
PnL
+$3.99
Record
38%
1425-2300 (3725)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$3.46
PnL
-$0.13
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$0.25
Record
43%
875-1153 (2028)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.15
Record
38%
1401-2279 (3680)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.