Rockets vs. Suns
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (38%) · Rockets at 73¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
8
Rockets 38%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
-$10.05
72¢ → 72.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Rocketsavg 72¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | -$1.21 | 54% 18337-15440 (33777) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Sunsavg 29¢ | $295.53 | $283.75 | -$11.78 | 48% 62085-66960 (129045) |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 29¢ | $235.77 | $223.58 | -$12.19 | |
| └ Rockets leg | Rocketsavg 72¢ | $59.76 | $60.18 | +$0.41 | |
 nigiri99 | Rocketsavg 72¢ | $238.42 | $238.32 | +$4.97 | 46% 8715-10380 (19095) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Sunsavg 29¢ | $157.46 | $146.6 | -$10.86 | 53% 5018-4537 (9555) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 27¢ | $13.97 | $14.23 | +$0.26 | 53% 12554-11261 (23815) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Rocketsavg 70¢ | $20.3 | $13 | -$1.83 | 48% 7436-7974 (15410) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 29¢ | $13.05 | $12.15 | -$0.9 | 50% 8396-8445 (16841) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 27.7¢ | $11.89 | $11.82 | -$0.07 | 54% 10223-8586 (18809) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 29.5¢ | $4.81 | $4.4 | -$0.41 | 58% 21580-15650 (37230) |
Invested
$3,598.74
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$1.21
Record
54%
18337-15440 (33777)
Invested
$295.53
Value
$283.75
PnL
-$11.78
Record
48%
62085-66960 (129045)
Both legs:
nigiri99Invested
$238.42
Value
$238.32
PnL
+$4.97
Record
46%
8715-10380 (19095)
Invested
$157.46
Value
$146.6
PnL
-$10.86
Record
53%
5018-4537 (9555)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$14.23
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
12554-11261 (23815)
Invested
$20.3
Value
$13
PnL
-$1.83
Record
48%
7436-7974 (15410)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$12.15
PnL
-$0.9
Record
50%
8396-8445 (16841)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$11.82
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
10223-8586 (18809)
Invested
$4.81
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.41
Record
58%
21580-15650 (37230)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.