Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 48¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$75.63

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,709

Combined PnL+$686.16

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,737

Combined PnL-$761.8

Under — 11%Over — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 52¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$686.16	50% 6811-6825 (13636)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.4K	$885	-$555	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$415.7	$405.92	-$9.78	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 48¢	$355.2	$351.5	-$3.7	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$480	$295	-$185	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$47.5	-$0.5	38% 847-1408 (2255)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.6	$5.9	-$3.7	56% 6908-5524 (12432)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$8.16	$5.02	-$3.15	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.47	-$0.98	47% 2038-2342 (4380)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$1,928.68

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$686.16

Record

50%

6811-6825 (13636)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,440

Value

$885

PnL

-$555

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$415.7

Value

$405.92

PnL

-$9.78

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$355.2

Value

$351.5

PnL

-$3.7

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$480

Value

$295

PnL

-$185

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$47.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

847-1408 (2255)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.6

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$3.7

Record

56%

6908-5524 (12432)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.16

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$3.15

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$0.98

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.