Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$139.75

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 52.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,462

Combined PnL+$140.12

Over2 traders

Total Value$12.18

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$0.38

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 48.9¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$140.32	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
WO woshikd99<$100	Underavg 52¢	$10.4	$10.2	-$0.2	50% 31-31 (62)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$9.8	-$0.3	56% 6910-5525 (12435)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 51¢	$6.12	$6.12	+$0	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.38	-$0.08	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$2,656.2

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$140.32

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

woshikd99<$100

Under

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

6910-5525 (12435)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.