Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 54¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$11.1K
$217.49
51.6¢ → 53.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Overavg 51¢ | $13.4K | $7.0K | +$200.47 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$15.85 | 54% 16865-14143 (31008) |
BU BullishBarb | Overavg 52¢ | $1.1K | $581.31 | +$5.54 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $530.12 | $541.65 | +$17.29 | 47% 2405-2690 (5095) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $459.94 | $470 | +$10.05 | 53% 5499-4843 (10342) |
Invested
$13,364.7
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$200.47
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
Invested
$2,523.72
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$15.85
Record
54%
16865-14143 (31008)
Invested
$1,107.25
Value
$581.31
PnL
+$5.54
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$530.12
Value
$541.65
PnL
+$17.29
Record
47%
2405-2690 (5095)
Invested
$459.94
Value
$470
PnL
+$10.05
Record
53%
5499-4843 (10342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.