Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$44.06

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,842

Combined PnL-$44.34

Under1 trader

Total Value$6.16

Total Shares14

Combined PnL+$0.28

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 56.5¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$45.94	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
HI hi774c	Overavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	52% 4656-4364 (9020)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 56¢	$140	$101.6	+$1.6	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$5.88	$6.16	+$0.28	50% 31-31 (62)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56¢	$3.34	$3.34	+$0	57% 13139-10016 (23155)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,555.41

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$45.94

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,073.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4656-4364 (9020)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$140

Value

$101.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.34

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

13139-10016 (23155)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.